The World Bank has revised downward its economic growth projection for Nigeria in 2026, cutting its forecast from 4.4 per cent to 4.1 per cent, in a development that reflects growing global uncertainties and persistent structural challenges weighing on Africa's most populous economy.
The downgrade was contained in the bank's April 2026 Africa Economic Update titled "Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa," which also revised Nigeria's growth outlook for 2027 to 4.2 per cent, down from an earlier projection, while setting the forecast for 2028 at 4.3 per cent. The Washington-based institution had in October 2025 projected that Nigeria's economy would expand by 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, making the latest revision a notable step back from those earlier expectations.
According to the report, the growth forecast is underpinned by more stable macroeconomic conditions and a gradual recovery in investment, with the services sector, particularly information and communication technology, finance and real estate, expected to remain the primary engine of growth. Agriculture and industry, the bank noted, are projected to expand at a slower pace owing to deep-seated structural constraints that have long hampered their contribution to the broader economy.
On the inflation front, the World Bank offered a measure of comfort, projecting that Nigeria's inflation rate would decline from 23 per cent in 2025 to 14.9 per cent in 2026 and ease further to 10.7 per cent by 2028, a trajectory it attributed to the delayed effects of monetary policy tightening and improving supply conditions across the economy.
However, the bank tempered this optimism with a set of sobering observations. It noted that while poverty is expected to decline gradually as inflation eases, the pace of that decline will likely be slower than hoped, partly because of higher fuel prices linked to tensions in the Middle East. The institution also warned that rising oil prices, though potentially supportive of Nigeria's fiscal and external balances, could be offset by volatility in capital flows driven by broader global uncertainty.
The World Bank further cautioned that business sentiment and the momentum behind economic reforms could be dampened by a combination of commodity price volatility, tighter global financial conditions, security concerns and the policy uncertainty that tends to accompany election cycles, with the country heading toward the 2027 general elections.
Nigeria was not alone in receiving a downward revision. The bank noted that economic activity across sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026, the same as in 2025 and representing a downgrade of 0.3 percentage points from the October 2025 projection. Several large economies in the region, including Angola, Kenya, Mozambique, Senegal, South Africa and Zambia, also had their 2026 forecasts revised downward, with approximately 60 per cent of the 47 countries in the region recording lower growth projections compared to earlier estimates. Despite the widespread downgrades, the bank acknowledged that macroeconomic conditions across the region had shown signs of improvement, pointing to better inflation control, stronger domestic currencies and easing fuel and food prices as factors that have continued to support economic activity.
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