Despite holding Africa’s largest proven gas reserves and recording rising gas production, household and industrial consumers in Nigeria are faced with significant shortages of Liquefied Petroleum Gas, also known as cooking gas. This development has placed intense pressure on the retail prices of the product. Market findings reveal that a major driver of the scarcity is the decision of some producers to focus on exporting the product rather than meeting domestic demand. Data obtained from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission shows that sixty-two per cent of the total gas output in the first two months of this year was exported, leaving only thirty-eight per cent for the domestic market. Industry analysts note that this lopsided supply structure, which was established when domestic gas utilization was low, cannot continue without completely destabilizing the local market.
The supply gap has widened as national demand continually outpaces local supply expansion. According to an industry report titled Nigeria LPG Production and Supply Matrix (2023-2026), the estimated national consumption of cooking gas increased by twenty per cent to 1.8 million metric tonnes in 2026, rising from 1.5 million metric tonnes recorded in 2023. Conversely, the estimated national supply for 2026 only hovered between 1.55 million metric tonnes and 1.65 million metric tonnes. This shortage persists despite increased production arising from the entry of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, inland gas processors, and various processing facilities linked to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited. The structural deficit has pushed retail prices across many parts of the country to between 1,700 Naira and 2,000 Naira per kilogramme, representing an eighty per cent spike from the first quarter average of 1,100 Naira. Marketers anticipate further price increases because the core operational challenges cannot be resolved in the short term.
An industry leader who pleaded anonymity provided detailed insight into the structural and logistics deficits hindering the sector. The expert explained that infrastructure limitations prevent the efficient evacuation of gas from production fields to urban consumers. The source stated, "Nigeria lacks adequate gas gathering, processing, storage and transmission infrastructure needed to move gas efficiently from production fields to consumers." The leader added, "This means that large volumes of gas produced in remote oil fields cannot be evacuated due to insufficient pipelines, processing plants and distribution networks." Commenting on the pricing incentives that draw supplies away from the local market, the source remarked, "Many producers prefer exporting gas through LNG projects because export markets offer more attractive pricing and stable foreign exchange earnings than the domestic market. As a result, domestic consumers often struggle to access sufficient supply." The expert also highlighted how local security issues disrupt transport networks, stating, "Persistent crude oil theft, vandalism and insecurity in the Niger Delta continue to disrupt gas production and transportation. Attacks on pipelines and related facilities often force operators to shut down production, thereby reducing supply to domestic users."
The anonymous industry leader further explained that macroeconomic pressures and inconsistent policy frameworks are delaying necessary capital injections into the gas sector. The expert stated, "The gas sector requires billions of dollars in long-term investment, but uncertainty in policy implementation, regulatory bottlenecks and foreign exchange challenges have slowed capital inflows. Many critical gas projects have suffered delays or remain undeveloped." Regarding shifting patterns of energy consumption and currency volatility, the source stated, "Domestic demand for LPG and natural gas has risen significantly due to population growth, urbanisation and government campaigns encouraging households to shift from firewood and kerosene to cleaner fuels. However, supply expansion has not kept pace with increasing demand." The leader added, "The depreciation of the naira has sharply increased the cost of imported LPG and gas-related equipment. Since Nigeria still imports a portion of its LPG requirements, exchange-rate instability directly affects pricing and availability." Highlighting the lack of proper storage buffers, the expert noted, "Nigeria’s LPG storage capacity remains inadequate compared to growing consumption levels. Insufficient coastal and inland storage facilities create supply disruptions whenever there are logistics delays, import challenges or production interruptions." The source concluded by pointing out regulatory friction, stating, "Frequent policy changes, multiple regulatory agencies and implementation delays continue to create uncertainty in the sector. Operators say inconsistent fiscal terms and unclear regulatory frameworks discourage long-term planning and investment."
Reacting to the domestic squeeze, the National President of the Nigerian Association of Liquefied Petroleum Gas Marketers, Barrister Edu Inyang, and the Executive Secretary, Bassey Essien, released a joint statement decrying the hardship imposed on citizens. They stated, "This sad situation has brought untold hardship to millions of Nigerian households, small businesses, food vendors and low-income families who rely on LPG for daily cooking and livelihood." The leadership expressed worry that the price surge is reversing environmental progress, noting, "It is worrisome that the current situation is eroding the substantial progress made by the government in promoting clean energy usage in the country." Explaining the operational realities faced by local retail dealers, they stated, "Our members across the country face challenges sourcing LPG due to persistent supply shortages, high depot prices, logistics bottlenecks and rising operational costs." They added, "We observe that where the product is available, it is sold at rates far beyond the reach of average Nigerians."
Inyang and Essien further warned that the breakdown of affordable supply networks threatens wider economic stability and environmental goals. They stated, "The current crisis is undermining years of progress achieved through federal government policies, public-private investments and awareness campaigns aimed at deepening LPG penetration and promoting clean cooking energy as a safer alternative to kerosene, charcoal and firewood in Nigeria." Commenting on the regressive alternatives families are forced to adopt, they noted, "Many families are reverting to firewood and charcoal, despite the serious implications for public health, environmental degradation and deforestation." The executives warned of broader economic issues, stating, "If urgent and coordinated action is not taken immediately, the current crisis could worsen food inflation, trigger job losses, reduce investor confidence and undermine Nigeria’s clean energy and climate commitments." The association urged the Federal Government, the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, and the regulatory authorities to take coordinated steps to stabilize the market.
Offering an assessment of the market trajectory, the National President of the Oil and Gas Service Providers Association of Nigeria, Mazi Colman Obasi, indicated that a rapid resolution is unlikely. Obasi stated, "The outlook is not bright in the short and medium term for several reasons. First, the problems, especially poor infrastructure and limited investment, cannot be addressed easily. Second, they require huge capital and much longer timeframes to resolve." He emphasized that administrative and security challenges require long-term institutional focus, adding, "Other issues such as insecurity and pipeline vandalism, foreign exchange volatility, limited storage capacity, regulatory inconsistencies and continued gas flaring also require resilience, commitment and long-term policy consistency."
Another industry expert pointed out that while local processing capability has expanded through various joint contributions, structural deficits must be aggressively eliminated to utilize the capacity. The analyst stated, "The combined contribution of NLNG, Dangote, Kwale Hydrocarbon, NPDC Ologbo, Pan Ocean, Seplat, PNG Gas, Greenville and other processors has significantly boosted Nigeria’s cooking gas output." The expert outlined the required steps for self-sufficiency, noting, "Nigeria now has the technical capacity to become largely self-sufficient in LPG supply, but additional gas-processing projects must be brought on stream, domestic gas infrastructure must be expanded, more storage terminals must be commissioned and the nation’s LPG adoption policies must be sustained." Historical market metrics from the National Bureau of Statistics confirm the steep trajectory of cooking gas costs, showing that prices rose by three hundred and thirty-five per cent over a decade, hitting 1,741 Naira per kilogramme in 2026 compared to 400 Naira in 2016. The bureau's statistical breakdown shows steady growth, with the price rising to 500 Naira in 2017, followed by 600 Naira in 2018, 680 Naira in 2019, 800 Naira in 2020, 950 Naira in 2021, 900 Naira in 2022, 1,000 Naira in 2023, 1,450 Naira in 2024, and 1,630 Naira in 2025 before hitting its current peak.
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